It’s a kind of a ritual, I suppose, that began here on Off The Telly back in 2006. Each January, come the publication of the previous year’s ratings, we assembled a new top 50, noting who was up, who was down and how many of our predictions from 12 months ago failed to come true. Which, invariably, was almost all of them.

And so it proves, perhaps fittingly, one last time. My forecast for the TV big-hitters of 2009 turned out to be almost completely wrong: “Doctor Who will be in there, probably when David Tennant regenerates (assuming he does it before 1st January 2010). A soap might be there. If Andy Murray gets to the Wimbledon final, that might squeeze in. Otherwise: talent shows. Especially if Brucie decides to quit Strictly Come Dancing.”

I was right about the talent shows. Here’s the list, with the 2009 entries in bold:

1) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2001) – 21.4m
2) Euro 2004: Portugal v England (BBC1, 24 June 2004) – 20.7m
3) EastEnders (5 April 2001) – 20.1m
4) Coronation Street (24 February 2003) – 19.4m
5) Coronation Street (3 January 2000) – 19.0m
6) Britain’s Got Talent (ITV1, 30 May 2009) – 18.3m
7) Euro 2004: France v England (ITV1, 21 June 2004) – 17.8m
8) EastEnders (29 September 2003) – 16.7m
9) EastEnders (5 March 2001) – 16.6m
10) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2002) – 16.3m
10) EastEnders (2 January 2001) – 16.3m
10) Coronation Street (16 February 2004) – 16.3m
10) The X Factor (13 December 2009) – 16.3m
14) Coronation Street (1 January 2001) – 16.2m
15) Coronation Street (3 January 2001) – 16.1m
15) Who Wants to be a Millionaire?: Tonight Special (21 April 2003) – 16.1m
15) Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death (25 December 2008) – 16.1m
18) EastEnders (25 December 2002) – 16m
19) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (19 January 2000) – 15.8m
20) Coronation Street (13 January 2003) – 15.6m
21) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2003) – 15.5m
21) Coronation Street (11 March 2001) – 15.5m
23) Michael Jackson Tonight Special (3 February 2003) – 15.3m
24) Heartbeat (6 February 2000) – 15.2m
24) EastEnders (28 December 2000) – 15.2m
26) I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out of Here! (9 February 2004) – 15m
27) Euro 2000 Portugal v England (ITV1, 12 June 2000) – 14.9m
28) Coronation Street (5 January 2001) – 14.8m
28) EastEnders (5 January 2004) – 14.8m
30) A Touch of Frost (14 January 2001) – 14.7m
31) Euro 2000 England v Romania (BBC1, 20 June 2000) – 14.6m
32) World Cup 2006: Sweden v England (ITV1, 20 June 2006) – 14.4m
33) Coronation Street (21 February 2005) – 14.4m
33) EastEnders (25 December 2007) – 14.4m
35) EastEnders (18 February 2005) – 14.3m
36) World Cup Match of the Day Live (BBC1, 25 June 2006) – 14.25m
37) The X Factor: Results (13 December 2008) – 14.06m
38) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (1 May 2000) – 13.9m
38) Britain’s Got Talent Final: Result (31 May 2008) – 13.9m
40) Heartbeat (21 January 2001) – 13.8m
41) Inspector Morse (15 November 2000) – 13.6m
42) Emmerdale (22 March 2000) – 13.3m
43) Pop Idol (9 February 2002) – 13.3m
43) Doctor Who (25 December 2007) – 13.3m
45) Rugby World Cup Final (20 October 2007, ITV1) – 13.1m
45) Coronation Street (15 January 2007) – 13.1m
45) The Vicar of Dibley (1 January 2007) – 13.1m
45) Doctor Who (25 December 2008) – 13.1m
49) A Touch of Frost (22 February 2004) – 13m
49) Coronation Street (18 January 2008) – 13m

Just two new entries, four down on last year. The shows that got knocked off the list were the 2008 Strictly Come Dancing final, the last ever episode of One Foot In The Grave and an edition of Heartbeat from 12 January 2003 (these last two were tied in 50th place).

The third most-watched programme of 2009 was the Doctor Who Christmas special, which attracted 12.04m viewers: not quite enough to make it a top 50 festive hat-trick for Russell T Davies.

This final chart means 2001 takes first place for the most number of programmes (10) followed by 2000 (nine), then 2003 tied with 2004 (six each), 2007 and 2008 (five apiece), 2002 (three) and finally 2005, 2006 and 2009 (two).

Not a bad decade, all told, in terms of nation-uniting, mass-appealing television. A memorable 10 years to have both watched and written about.

Only Fools and Horses ends up the most viewed programme of the 1990s and 2000s (but not the 1980s; that honour goes to Live and Let Die). It somehow seems unlikely the forthcoming “prequel” will make it three in a row for John Sullivan.

Lastly, here’s the full top 20 for 2009. All the talent shows appear once, represented by their respective results programmes. The presence of numbers 10 and 19 might have something to do with falling on the day when Britain was “snowed in”. Note also, at number six, “flop show” Strictly Come Dancing.

1) Britain’s Got Talent (30/05/09, ITV1) 18.29m
2) The X Factor (13/12/09, ITV1) 16.28m
3) Doctor Who (25/12/09, BBC1) 12.04m
4) The Royle Family (25/12/09, BBC1) 11.92m
5) EastEnders (25/12/09, BBC1) 11.67m
6) Strictly Come Dancing (19/12/09, BBC1) 11.54m
7) Coronation Street (02/02/09, ITV1) 11.46m
8) Dancing On Ice (22/03/09, ITV1) 11.31m
9) I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here (21/11/09, ITV1) 10.86m
10) I Dreamed A Dream: The Susan Boyle Story (13/12/09, ITV1) 10.79m
11) Children In Need (20/11/09, BBC1) 10.31m
12) Doc Martin (08/11/09, ITV1) 10.28m
13) Gavin and Stacey (25/12/09, BBC1) 10.18m
14) The Gruffalo (25/12/09, BBC1) 10.08m
15) Jonathan Creek (01/01/09, BBC1) 9.91m
16) Comic Relief (13/03/09, BBC1) 9.84m
17) The Apprentice (03/06/09, BBC1) 9.76m
18) The Royal Variety Performance (16/12/09, ITV1) 9.56m
19) Whitechapel (02/02/09, ITV1) 9.26m
20) Kilimanjaro: The Big Red Nose Climb (12/03/09, BBC1) 9.20m

And that’s your lot.

By way of a comparison, Glenn wondered what might be the 20 most-watched programmes of the 1980s. Here’s the list:

1) Live And Let Die (ITV, 20/1/1980) – 23.50m
2) Jaws (ITV, 8/10/1981) – 23.25m
3) The Spy Who Loved Me (ITV, 28/3/1982) – 22.90m
4) Diamonds Are Forever (ITV, 15/3/1981) – 22.15m
5) Dallas (BBC1, 22/11/1980) – 21.60m
6) To The Manor Born (BBC1, 9/11/1980) – 21.55m
7) Coronation Street (ITV, 2/1/1985) – 21.40m
8) Bread (BBC1, 11/12/1988) – 20.95m
9) Coronation Street (ITV, 18/12/1980) – 20.80m
10) Just Good Friends (BBC1, 21/12/1986) – 20.75m
11) Coronation Street (ITV, 16/1/1985) – 20.60m
12) The Royal Variety Performance (ITV, 25/11/84) – 20.55m
13) Coronation Street (ITV, 14/11/84) – 20.45m
14) Dallas (BBC1, 8/11/80) – 20.25m
15) Coronation Street (ITV, 28/11/84) – 20.25m
16) Coronation Street (ITV, 21/11/84) – 20.20m
16) Coronation Street (ITV, 21/1/85) – 20.20m
18) To The Manor Born (BBC1, 19/10/80) – 20.15m
18) Coronation Street (ITV, 14/1/85) – 20.15m
18) Bread (BBC1, 4/12/88) – 20.15m

Intriguing stuff. Bond films have three of the top four places. I’m guessing 3) was the premiere. Could 2) have been a premiere as well?

You’ve no fewer than eight episodes of Coronation Street, three from November 1984. Was this the departure of Billy Walker, driving off down the M62 during the end credits? Any thoughts on the other ones? No sign of EastEnders, mind, and just two showings for Dallas, both from November 1980. 5) must be the unmasking of JR’s killer; was 14) a repeat of the one where he was shot?

Surely nobody remembers Bread with much fondness nowadays. At least To The Manor Born outpolled it by 600,000. And just two programmes from the 2000s have so far won enough viewers to outrank Bread at 18): the episode of Only Fools And Horses from Christmas Day 2001 (21.4m) and the BBC’s coverage of the Portugal v England match in Euro 2004 (20.7m).

Lastly, as a footnote, just outside the top 20 is The Benny Hill Show from 7th January, 1981, with exactly 20 million viewers.

As usual, the prediction I made 12 months ago for the year turned out to be almost completely wrong: “Given there are no home nations in Euro 2008, I doubt there’ll be any sport events that make the grade. The soaps might scrape in, but Doctor Who certainly won’t. A one-off sitcom ‘event’ might do the trick, though.”

Well, I was right about sport. Here’s the list, with the 2008 entries in bold:

1) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2001) – 21.4m
2) Euro 2004: Portugal v England (BBC1, 24 June 2004) – 20.7m
3) EastEnders (5 April 2001) – 20.1m
4) Coronation Street (24 February 2003) – 19.4m
5) Coronation Street (3 January 2000) – 19.0m
6) Euro 2004: France v England (ITV1, 21 June 2004) – 17.8m
7) EastEnders (29 September 2003) – 16.7m
8) EastEnders (5 March 2001) – 16.6m
9) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2002) – 16.3m
9) EastEnders (2 January 2001) – 16.3m
9) Coronation Street (16 February 2004) – 16.3m
12) Coronation Street (1 January 2001) – 16.2m
13) Coronation Street (3 January 2001) – 16.1m
13) Who Wants to be a Millionaire?: Tonight Special (21 April 2003) – 16.1m
13) Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death (25 December 2008) – 16.1m
16) EastEnders (25 December 2002) – 16m
17) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (19 January 2000) – 15.8m
18) Coronation Street (13 January 2003) – 15.6m
19) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2003) – 15.5m
20) Coronation Street (11 March 2001) – 15.5m
21) Michael Jackson Tonight Special (3 February 2003) – 15.3m
22) Heartbeat (6 February 2000) – 15.2m
22) EastEnders (28 December 2000) – 15.2m
24) I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out of Here! (9 February 2004) – 15m
25) Euro 2000 Portugal v England (ITV1, 12 June 2000) – 14.9m
26) Coronation Street (5 January 2001) – 14.8m
26) EastEnders (5 January 2004) – 14.8m
28) A Touch of Frost (14 January 2001) – 14.7m
29) Euro 2000 England v Romania (BBC1, 20 June 2000) – 14.6m
30) World Cup 2006: Sweden v England (ITV1, 20 June 2006) – 14.4m
31) Coronation Street (21 February 2005) – 14.4m
31) EastEnders (25 December 2007) – 14.4m
33) EastEnders (18 February 2005) – 14.3m
34) World Cup Match of the Day Live (BBC1, 25 June 2006) – 14.25m
35) The X Factor: Results (13 December 2008) – 14.06m
36) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (1 May 2000) – 13.9m
36) Britain’s Got Talent Final: Result (31 May 2008) – 13.9m
38) Heartbeat (21 January 2001) – 13.8m
39) Inspector Morse (15 November 2000) – 13.6m
40) Emmerdale (22 March 2000) – 13.3m
41) Pop Idol (9 February 2002) – 13.3m
41) Doctor Who (25 December 2007) – 13.3m
43) Rugby World Cup Final (20 October 2007, ITV1) – 13.1m
43) Coronation Street (15 January 2007) – 13.1m
43) The Vicar of Dibley (1 January 2007) – 13.1m
43) Doctor Who (25 December 2008) – 13.1m
47) A Touch of Frost (22 February 2004) – 13m
47) Coronation Street (18 January 2008) – 13m
49) Strictly Come Dancing (20 December 2008) – 12.9m
50) One Foot in the Grave (20 November 2000) – 12.8m
50) Heartbeat (12 January 2003) – 12.8m

An impressive six new entries: one more than last year.

Think what you like about Russell T Davies, but he certainly knows how to hype up his Christmas Doctor Who episodes. An appearance by David Morrissey attracted just 200,000 fewer viewers than an appearance by Kylie Minogue. Maybe the earlier time slot and the absence of anything good on the other channels helped.

As for Wallace and Gromit, that’s the first time any British television programme has got more than 16m viewers since 24 June 2004 – a gap of almost exactly four and a half years.

If anyone knows what happened during that Coronation Street episode, speak up. Otherwise it’s all about talent shows, back in the chart for the first time since 2002.

The new chart means both 2000 and 2001 still hold joint first place for the most number of programmes (10 apiece) followed by 2003 (7), then 2004 tied with 2008 (6 – one in the eye for all the doom merchants who think nation-gripping telly is dead), 2007 (5), 2002 (3) and finally 2005 and 2006 (two each).

For the record, the ones that got knocked off the chart this year were the final of I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out of Here! from 2003, a screening of Billy Elliot in 2003, the 2004 Christmas Day episode of The Vicar of Dibley, Jubilee 2002: Party at the Palace, and the 2002 World Cup match between England and Brazil.

Predictions for 2009, and hence for the final *final* chart of the decade? Doctor Who will be in there, probably when David Tennant regenerates (assuming he does it before 1st January 2010). A soap might be there. If Andy Murray gets to the Wimbledon final, that might squeeze in. Otherwise: talent shows. Especially if Brucie decides to quit Strictly Come Dancing.

Lastly, here’s the full top 20 for 2008.

1) Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death (25/12/08, BBC1) 16.15m
2) The X Factor: Results (13/12/08, ITV1) 14.06m
3) Britain’s Got Talent Final: Results (31/05/08, ITV1) 13.88m
4) Doctor Who (25/12/08, BBC1) 13.10m
5) Coronation Street (18/01/08, ITV1) 13.02m
6) Strictly Come Dancing (20/12/08, BBC1) 12.97m
7) Dancing On Ice (16/03/08, ITV1) 12.08m
8) EastEnders (24/03/08, BBC1) 11.73m
9) The Royle Family (25/12/08, BBC1) 10.60m
10) I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out Of Here! (29/11/08, ITV1) 10.19m
11) Antiques Roadshow (16/11/08, BBC1) 10.11m
12) Champions League Final (21/05/08, ITV1) 10.05m
13) Children In Need 2008 (14/11/08, BBC1) 9.83m
14) New Tricks (18/08/08, BBC1) 9.36m
15) BBC News (25/12/08, BBC1) 9.34m
16) The Apprentice (11/06/08, BBC1) 9.29m
17) Match Of The Day Live: England v Switzerland (06/02/08, BBC1) 9.18m
18) Brazilian Grand Prix (02/11/08, ITV1) 9.08m
19) Lewis (24/02/08, ITV1) 8.90m
20) Emmerdale (02/01/08, ITV1) 8.85m

Much of this is probably thanks to viewers getting bored of Bonekickers, but in a desperate attempt to justify my original post, I think it’s incredible that one of the week’s top performers at 9pm on ITV1 is a repeat. In fact the only other success in that slot appears to be the repeats of A Touch of Frost on Fridays, which is the only weekday when they’re continually beating the Beeb at 9pm. You have to go back to before Euro 2008 before you can find ITV winning that slot on any other weeknight.

Probably the biggest flop there recently has been Harley Street which debuted last week with a paltry 3.9 million viewers, being thrashed by cheap BBC1 filler On The Fiddle. That’s remarkable given the first episode of Bonekickers on BBC1 the week before garnered 6.8 million viewers. Alright, so the ratings for that are plummeting, but surely a medical drama stuffed with former soap stars you recognise would be an easier thing to sell than a drama about archaeologists starring a cast who, although all fine actors, are hardly household names.

It looks as if people have stopped trusting ITV1 to produce new drama. None of their new series this year have been much of a hit and the only shows guaranteed a big audience are old favourites like Midsomer Murders and, yes, Doc Martin. Where are the equivalents of New Tricks on ITV1 these days? From the channel that brought you Minder and Auf Wiedersehen, Pet, that’s amazing.

Well, maybe self-contained crime dramas can be repeated – and Midsomer Murders producer Brian True-May recently complained about ITV repeating his show too often – but I still can’t think of one repeat of a drama serial that has proven at all popular. Big series like Cold Feet and even Pride and Prejudice both did next to nothing in prime time repeat runs.

Tonight, ITV1 begins a repeat run of Doc Martin from 2006. Sure, it’s a popular series, but who wants to see it again? It’s not even the last series, thus making it even less appealing because even if you’ve come in late, you’ll know everything that’s going to happen. That’s why I’m willing to predict that this series will be dropped long before it finishes the end of its run in eight weeks, and when (not if) it does, I’ll come back here to remind ITV1 what a stupid idea it is.

And no, I’m not just saying this for the obvious post title when it goes.

12 months ago, when I found there were just a paltry two shows to add from 2006, I wondered if 2007 would produce anything at all that would make the top 50. “Barring unforeseen deaths of national figures, or something like Prince William getting married, I reckon the final chart for the whole of this decade will look virtually identical to the one above.”

Well, I was wrong. No fewer than five programmes from 2007 got enough viewers to enter the top 50. They’re marked in bold below:

1) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2001) – 21.4m
2) Euro 2004: Portugal v England (BBC1, 24 June 2004) – 20.7m
3) EastEnders (5 April 2001) – 20.1m
4) Coronation Street (24 February 2003) – 19.4m
5) Coronation Street (3 January 2000) – 19.0m
6) Euro 2004: France v England (ITV1, 21 June 2004) – 17.8m
7) EastEnders (29 September 2003) – 16.7m
8) EastEnders (5 March 2001) – 16.6m
9) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2002) – 16.3m
9) EastEnders (2 January 2001) – 16.3m
9) Coronation Street (16 February 2004) – 16.3m
12) Coronation Street (1 January 2001) – 16.2m
13) Coronation Street (3 January 2001) – 16.1m
13) Who Wants to be a Millionaire?: Tonight Special (21 April 2003) – 16.1m
15) EastEnders (25 December 2002) – 16m
16) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (19 January 2000) – 15.8m
17) Coronation Street (13 January 2003) – 15.6m
18) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2003) – 15.5m
18) Coronation Street (11 March 2001) – 15.5m
20) Michael Jackson Tonight Special (3 February 2003) – 15.3m
21) Heartbeat (6 February 2000) – 15.2m
21) EastEnders (28 December 2000) – 15.2m
23) I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! (9 February 2004) – 15m
24) Euro 2000 Portugal v England (ITV1, 12 June 2000) – 14.9m
25) Coronation Street (5 January 2001) – 14.8m
25) EastEnders (5 January 2004) – 14.8m
27) A Touch of Frost (14 January 2001) – 14.7m
28) Euro 2000 England v Romania (BBC1, 20 June 2000) – 14.6m
29) World Cup 2006: Sweden v England (ITV1, 20 June 2006) – 14.4m
30) Coronation Street (21 February 2005) – 14.4m
30) EastEnders (25 December 2007) – 14.4m 
32) EastEnders (18 February 2005) – 14.3m
33) World Cup Match of the Day Live (BBC1, 25 June 2006) – 14.25m
34) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (1 May 2000) – 13.9m
35) Heartbeat (21 January 2001) – 13.8m
36) Inspector Morse (15 November 2000) – 13.6m
37) Emmerdale (22 March 2000) – 13.3m
38) Pop Idol (9 February 2002) – 13.3m
38) Doctor Who (25 December 2007) – 13.3m
40) Rugby World Cup Final (20 October 2007, ITV1) – 13.1m
40) Coronation Street (15 January 2007) – 13.1m 
40) The Vicar of Dibley (1 January 2007) – 13.1m 
43) A Touch of Frost (22 February 2004) – 13m
44) One Foot in the Grave (20 November 2000) – 12.8m
44) Heartbeat (12 January 2003) – 12.8m
46) I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! (12 May 2003) – 12.7m
46) Billy Elliot (BBC1, 1 January 2003) – 12.7m
48) The Vicar of Dibley (25 December 2004) – 12.6m
49) Jubilee 2002: Party at the Palace (BBC1, 3 June 2002) – 12.5m
49) World Cup 2002: England v Brazil (BBC1, 21 June 2002) – 12.5m

First of all, who’d have banked on an episode of Doctor Who ever getting quite so many viewers, let alone end up in a chart of the top 50 most-watched shows of the entire decade? The identity of other four newcomers – two soaps, a sport tournament final and a sitcom institution – isn’t so surprising, yet their respective scores suggest that multi-million audiences of British television are still there to be won.

The new top 50 means both 2000 and 2001 now hold joint first place for the most number of programmes (10 apiece), followed by 2003 (9), 2004 (7), 2002 (5 – the same as 2007), and then 2005 and 2006 with two each.

For the record, the five that got knocked off the chart were episodes of Casualty, A Touch Of Frost and Auf Wiedersehen Pet, plus the 2003 Rugby World Cup Final and the England v Denmark game from the 2002 World Cup.

What, then, is likely to happen this year? Given there are no home nations in Euro 2008, I doubt there’ll be any sport events that make the grade. The soaps might scrape in, but Doctor Who certainly won’t (that 13.3m figure being thanks to Kylie Minogue). A one-off sitcom “event” might do the trick, though. Yet another “last-ever” Only Fools and Horses?

Finally, here’s the full top 10 for 2007. Diana (#7) and Brucie (#8): who’d have thought?

1) EastEnders (25 December 2007) – 14.38m
2) Doctor Who (25 December 2007) – 13.31m
3) Rugby World Cup Final (20 October 2007) – 13.13m
4) Coronation Street (15 January 2007) – 13.08m
5) The Vicar Of Dibley (1 January 2007) – 13.08m
6) The X Factor Results (15 December 2007) – 12.23m
7) Concert For Diana (1 July 2007) – 12.22m
8) Strictly Come Dancing (22 December 2007) – 12.09m
9) Britain’s Got Talent (17 June 2007) – 11.58m
10) Match Of The Day Live: England v Croatia (21 November 2007) – 11.19m

I say update; it’s more a question of minute fine-tuning, as there are a grand total of just two new additions to the list. These appear at the relatively lowly positions of 29 and 32, and are both, unsurprisingly, World Cup matches.

Such a tiny tally is not unique; there are only two programmes from 2005 in the list as well. Up until then, however, the chart is still fairly balanced, with 11 shows hailing from 2000, 10 from 2001, 8 from 2002, 10 from 2003 and 7 from 2004. Here’s the new countdown in full:

1) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2001) – 21.4m
2) Euro 2004: Portugal v England (BBC1, 24 June 2004) – 20.7m
3) EastEnders (5 April 2001) – 20.1m
4) Coronation Street (24 February 2003) – 19.4m
5) Coronation Street (3 January 2000) – 19.0m
6) Euro 2004: France v England (ITV1, 21 June 2004) – 17.8m
7) EastEnders (29 September 2003) – 16.7m
8) EastEnders (5 March 2001) – 16.6m
9) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2002) – 16.3m
9) EastEnders (2 January 2001) – 16.3m
9) Coronation Street (16 February 2004) – 16.3m
12) Coronation Street (1 January 2001) – 16.2m
13) Coronation Street (3 January 2001) – 16.1m
13) Who Wants to be a Millionaire?: Tonight Special (21 April 2003) – 16.1m
15) EastEnders (25 December 2002) – 16m
16) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (19 January 2000) – 15.8m
17) Coronation Street (13 January 2003) – 15.6m
18) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2003) – 15.5m
18) Coronation Street (11 March 2001) – 15.5m
20) Michael Jackson Tonight Special (3 February 2003) – 15.3m
21) Heartbeat (6 February 2000) – 15.2m
21) EastEnders (28 December 2000) – 15.2m
23) I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! (9 February 2004) – 15m
24) Euro 2000 Portugal v England (ITV1, 12 June 2000) – 14.9m
25) Coronation Street (5 January 2001) – 14.8m
25) EastEnders (5 January 2004) – 14.8m
27) A Touch of Frost (14 January 2001) – 14.7m
28) Euro 2000 England v Romania (BBC1, 20 June 2000) – 14.6m
29) World Cup 2006: Sweden v England (ITV1, 20 June 2006) – 14.4m
30) Coronation Street (21 February 2005) – 14.4m
31) EastEnders (18 February 2005) – 14.3m
32) World Cup Match of the Day Live (BBC1, 25 June 2006) – 14.25m
33) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (1 May 2000) – 13.9m
34) Heartbeat (21 January 2001) – 13.8m
35) Inspector Morse (15 November 2000) – 13.6m
36) Emmerdale (22 March 2000) – 13.3m
36) Pop Idol (9 February 2002) – 13.3m
38) A Touch of Frost (22 February 2004) – 13m
39) One Foot in the Grave (20 November 2000) – 12.8m
39) Heartbeat (12 January 2003) – 12.8m
41) I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! (12 May 2003) – 12.7m
41) Billy Elliot (BBC1, 1 January 2003) 12.7m
43) The Vicar of Dibley (25 December 2004) – 12.6m
44) Jubilee 2002: Party at the Palace (BBC1, 3 June 2002) – 12.5m
44) World Cup 2002: England v Brazil (BBC1, 21 June 2002) – 12.5m
44) World Cup 2002: England v Denmark (BBC1, 15 June 2002) – 12.5m
47) Auf Wiedersehen, Pet (2002) – 12.4m
47) A Touch of Frost (2002) – 12.4m
49) Rugby World Cup Final (ITV1, 22 November 2003) -12.3m
50) Casualty (12 February 2000) – 12.3m

Last year I ended my analysis of the chart with a prediction. I forecast that the only new additions to the chart come the end of 2006 would be some World Cup matches and at least a couple of soap episodes.

The former turned out to be true, but the latter did not – which, given there are no such high profile sport tournaments happening this year, makes me wonder whether 2007 will supply any new additions to this countdown whatsoever. Even the performance of those World Cup games of 2006 was fairly mediocre, failing to come close to even equalling the ratings won by matches from Euro 2000 and Euro 2004.

It seems the era of the genuinely multi-million watching TV event ended two years ago. Barring unforeseen deaths of national figures, or something like Prince William getting married, I reckon the final chart for the whole of this decade will look virtually identical to the one above.

Meantime, here are the top 10 most watched programmes of 2006. Any ideas what was so special about those soap episodes? And just why so many were watching ITV on 29th January?

1) World Cup 2006: Sweden v England (ITV1, 20 June 2006) – 14.4m
2) World Cup Match of the Day Live (BBC1, 25 June 2006) – 14.25m
3) Coronation Street (ITV1, 13 March 2006) – 12.2m
4) The Vicar of Dibley (BBC1, 25 December 2006) – 12.19m
5) EastEnders (BBC1, 2 January 2006) – 12.07m
6) Strictly Come Dancing (BBC1, 23 December 2006) – 11.96m
7) Dancing on Ice: The Bolero Results (ITV1, 4 March 2006) – 11.11m
8) Lewis (ITV1, 29 January 2006) – 11.11m
9) Wild at Heart (ITV1, 29 January 2006) – 10.63m
10) The X Factor – The Final Result (ITV1, 16 December 2006) – 10.53m

Really, though, who didn’t see this one coming? Afterlife wasn’t much of a hit first time round, pulling in defiantly mediocre audiences, so how did ITV ever think that it might do any better this time? In fact, it got two million viewers and was beaten by all four other analogue channels.

I recall William Phillips, writing in Broadcast a decade or so ago, saying that repeats of drama series simply do not work, and that remains the case. There he was talking about a repeat run of Soldier Soldier being hauled off halfway through, and aside from self-contained mysteries like a Frost or a Morse, I can’t think of one drama rerun that has ever proven successful on the main channels. This is presumably why Doctor Who, which was certainly hugely successful, hasn’t been repeated on BBC1.

It’s not just that ITV thought an Afterlife rerun might work at any time, but that they thought it might work for six weeks on Sundays at 9pm – what has perhaps been the flagship slot for ITV1. This is where all the big guns have gone in the past, the showcase for all the commercial channel’s biggest drama hits. Now it’s being filled by 15-year old episodes ofPoirot! Even in July, this is dreadful.

As recently as maybe five years ago, ITV was walking all over the Beeb in terms of popular drama. Now look at it – this week, aside from the soaps and The Bill, there are just three dramas on ITV1, and only Where the Heart Is could be considered a hit, and even that was at its peak in the ’90s. Bad Girls is surely on its last legs, and the other one, Jane Hall, has been on the shelf for two years. Meanwhile BBC1, with the likes of Sorted and Inspector Lynley, are, to use the words of Greg Dyke, out ITV-ing ITV when it comes to popular shows.

I’ve asked it before and I’ll keep on asking it – how on earth can ITV1 think the way to increase ratings is to spend no money on programmes?

ITV1 appear to have dumped plans to counter Channel 4′s transmissions of The Paul O’Grady Show with, er, The Best of The Paul O’Grady Show, with something equally original over the beans on toast – old repeats of You’ve Been Framed and a blatant rip-off of Strictly Come Dancing: It Takes Two, to accompany their blatant rip-off of Strictly Come Dancing, Dancing on Ice.

It also appears that we’re soon to be getting another revival of The Price is Right, fronted by squeaky-voiced jungle funnyman Joe Pasquale, which it seems ITV1 will be punting out at 4.30pm. Which is completely the wrong time for the naked greed and arm-waving hysteria of TPIR. And who in their right minds could put up with that every single afternoon? Noel Edmonds is hardly going to be worried about the return of Cliffhanger and Switcheroo, is he?

To accommodate this, it looks like CITV is to be slashed to an hour a day, which makes you wonder why ITV are even bothering. How many kids are going to tune in for an hour, when there’s two hours-plus on BBC1, and all day on the Beeb’s kids’ channels, not to mention Nick, Disney, Cartoon Network etc? Presumably this hour will be little more than an extended trailer for their own forthcoming CITV channel. But given that ITV are only now obliged to provide eight hours of childrens’ programming a week, I don’t see why they don’t just do two four-hour slabs on weekend mornings.

One more point. How long does BBC1 stay out of all this before the ITV-C4 teatime war starts to affect share? There were rumours a few years back that Mark Thompson, in his previous incarnation as Director of Television, wanted to shift CBBC in its entirety to BBC2. Might we soon see The Weakest Link in tandem with Neighbours on BBC1?

By judiciously splicing together statistics from individual years, you end up with a fascinating chart that not only throws up a fair share of surprises, but one which almost confounds the notion that audiences don’t tune in like they used to:

1) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2001) – 21.4m
2) Euro 2004: Portugal v England (BBC1, 24 June 2004) – 20.7m
3) EastEnders (5 April 2001) – 20.1m
4) Coronation Street (24 February 2003) – 19.4m
5) Coronation Street (3 January 2000) – 19.0m
6) Euro 2004: France v England (ITV1, 21 June 2004) – 17.8m
7) EastEnders (29 September 2003) – 16.7m
8) EastEnders (5 March 2001) – 16.6m
9) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2002) – 16.3m
9) EastEnders (2 January 2001) – 16.3m
9) Coronation Street (16 February 2004) – 16.3m
12) Coronation Street (1 January 2001) – 16.2m
13) Coronation Street (3 January 2001) – 16.1m
13) Who Wants to be a Millionaire?: Tonight Special (21 April 2003) – 16.1m
15) EastEnders (25 December 2002) – 16m
16) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (19 January 2000) – 15.8m
17) Coronation Street (13 January 2003) – 15.6m
18) Only Fools and Horses (25 December 2003) – 15.5m
18) Coronation Street (11 March 2001) – 15.5m
20) Michael Jackson Tonight Special (3 February 2003) – 15.3m
21) Heartbeat (6 February 2000) – 15.2m
21) EastEnders (28 December 2000) – 15.2m
23) I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! (9 February 2004) – 15m
24) Euro 2000 Portugal v England (ITV1, 12 June 2000) – 14.9m
25) Coronation Street (5 January 2001) – 14.8m
25) EastEnders (5 January 2004) – 14.8m
27) A Touch of Frost (14 January 2001) – 14.7m
28) Euro 2000 England v Romania (BBC1, 20 June 2000) -14.6m
29) Coronation Street (21 February 2005) – 14.4m
30) EastEnders (18 February 2005) – 14.3m
31) Who Wants to be a Millionaire? (1 May 2000) – 13.9m
32) Heartbeat (21 January 2001) – 13.8m
33) Inspector Morse (15 November 2000) – 13.6m
34) Emmerdale (22 March 2000) – 13.3m
34) Pop Idol (9 February 2002) – 13.3m
36) A Touch of Frost (22 February 2004) – 13m
37) One Foot in the Grave (20 November 2000) – 12.8m
37) Heartbeat (12 January 2003) – 12.8m
39) I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! (12 May 2003) 12.7m
39) Billy Elliot (BBC1, 1 January 2003) 12.7m
41) The Vicar of Dibley (25 December 2004) – 12.6m
42) Jubilee 2002: Party at the Palace (BBC1, 3 June 2002) – 12.5m
42) World Cup 2002: England v Brazil (BBC1, 21 June 2002) – 12.5m
42) World Cup 2002: England v Denmark (BBC1, 15 June 2002) – 12.5m
45) Auf Wiedersehen, Pet (2002) – 12.4m
45) A Touch of Frost (2002) – 12.4m
47) Rugby World Cup Final (ITV1, 22 November 2003) -12.3m
47) Casualty (12 February 2000) – 12.3m
47) Seeing Red (19 March 2000) – 12.3m
50) World Cup 2002: England v Sweden (ITV1, 2nd June 2002) – 12.2m

There are various things to pick up on here.

The top 10, for instance, boasts programmes from every year except 2005. Indeed, of the 50, 12 hail from 2000, 10 from 2001, 9 from 2002, 10 from 2003, 7 from 2004 and just 2 from 2005. If you discount last year’s poor showing, and that’s a fairly telling if, that makes for a fairly even spread across the decade.

As far as the soaps go, all bar one of the featured episodes of EastEnders are to do with death. Number 3 saw the identity of Phil Mitchell’s killer revealed, while #8 was concerned with the immediate aftermath of his shooting; #7 witnessed the return of Den from the dead while #30 saw him being killed off – again; #9 was the day after Nick was shot, #15 the one where Jamie died, and #25 the fall out of a minibus crash in Scotland. Only the episode at #28 refrains from morbid matters, instead settling for a search for Little Mo.

In contrast, some of the featured episodes of Coronation Street deal with the most trivial of concerns. Three episodes from the week of 1 January 2001 make the chart (#12, #13 and #25), none of which appear to be in any way notable, unless Ken and Deirdre quarreling about the virtues of becoming a magistrate counts as must-watch TV (which it evidently did). Proper set-piece shenanigans lay behind #4 (Richard Hillman confessing his murderous crimes to Gail), #5 (the 45-minute two-hander between Curly and Raquel), and #17 (Richard attempting to murder Emily Bishop), while #18 is the 5000th episode featuring Ken and Mike in court, #9 is Steve and Karen’s wedding and #29 the problems with Katy and Martin’s relationship.

Other points of interest include the fact there are two last-ever episodes in there at #33 and #37. Famously, One Foot In the Grave was transmitted up against Judith Keppel winning the full sum on … Millionaire? But though it lost out in overnight ratings, it actually ended up winning when the number of people who videoed the episode were factored in.

Breaking it down into genre, there’s just one film (#39) but 18 soaps; 10 dramas, eight sporting matches, and five sitcoms; two quizzes and one documentary about quizzes; three game show finales; one stand-alone documentary; and one royal celebration. Five of the 50 were broadcast on Christmas Day. The overall score is 21 to BBC1, 29 to ITV.

Finally a prediction. This chart will have changed come this time next year, but not by much. Additions will be in the form of some World Cup matches and at least a couple of high profile soap episodes. Anything else will come courtesy of unexpected national events or unintended smash hits. Both of which, in the eyes of channel controllers, would be very much welcome.